If you want to place successful sports bets, you must first determine the probability of a result occurring. Also, you’ll need a sportsbook that you can trust. Based on our experience, there is no better place than Campobet: https://campobet.com/hi/. It combines the best qualities of all bookmakers.
Who will win the game or how many goals will be scored? The Poisson distribution helps to determine the probabilities.
But can you base a profitable betting online strategy on the Poisson distribution? Keep reading to find out.
What is the Poisson Distribution?
The Poisson distribution is based on a formula by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, which calculates the probability from 100. The basis for this is always the data used from the statistics on the teams, for example, the number of goals scored, goals conceded, or home and away wins.
The formula is as follows: f(x) = P(X=x) = (e-λ λx)/x!
Even though it looks a bit complicated, if you look closely, it’s pretty easy to understand.
Moreover, you do not have to get involved in the calculation yourself. There are several automatic calculators on the Internet in which you only need to enter the basic data.
How Can Sports Bets be Calculated Using the Poisson Distribution?
Various betting markets can be analyzed using the Poisson distribution, whereby the calculation is mainly used for goal bets. The offensive and defensive strengths of the teams are assessed.
You enter the goals scored and the goals conceded. The Poisson distribution can then use the data to eject the percentage probability.
How to Use the Poisson Distribution for Sports Betting Online?
The Poisson distribution is mainly used in football. The reason is obvious. The results of the games are similar. There are no large fluctuations, meaning that the probability of a result is above average compared to other sports.
The expected value for upcoming events can therefore be determined. This applies explicitly to the goals scored.
Basics of the Poisson Distribution
In order to use the Poisson distribution, you need to know a few basics. As mentioned at the beginning, you don’t have to be a math genius to calculate everything. All you have to do is enter the necessary information into an online Poisson calculator.
Nevertheless, from our point of view, there are a few things that you need to know to get the best possible results.
Learn How to Calculate Event Probabilities
At the end of each betting analysis is the event probability. So you come to a point where there is a percentage.
Let’s say that there is a 60 percent chance that the home team will win the game and score at least two goals. The outcome or event probability is always the basis of your betting tip. Based on your prediction, try to find a value bet.
Find Relevant Betting Markets
First, select the relevant betting market. The choice depends on your betting tendency.
Determine Probabilities for a Betting Market
Then enter the statistical data into the Poisson calculator. You can directly see the percentage probability of the results occurring.
Display the Calculated Probability of Occurrence of the Betting Market as Odds
The percentage must then be presented as odds in order to be able to compare the betting offer.
Compare Poisson Odds With Bookmaker Odds
Once you have odds, you need to see how much different they are from what the betting online site has to offer. If the bookmaker has higher odds on the screen, you have found a value bet.
Associate Calculated Value Bets With Preferred Betting Online Strategy
If you have found value bets, you should place your wager – no ifs or buts.
Find the Best Bookmaker and Place a Value Bet
It is important that you find a good bookie before placing value bets. The higher the odds – the better.
Look for Ways to Optimize the Bet
You can’t just rely on the computer, because it doesn’t take into account some things, such as injuries, bad shape, head-to-head comparisons, etc. So if you want to bet successfully, you need to optimize your bet based on the facts mentioned.